Support for Uribe is at a record high of 80%, but the results from the municipal elections in October 2007 show that uribista parties aren’t faring quite as well. While uribistas won more gubernatorial and mayoral seats than any other party, they lost the mayoral races in key cities including Bogota. Why aren’t the parties as popular as Uribe?
The presidency is built on the personality and patronage of Uribe rather than a party label. As a defector from the Liberal party, Uribe won his first campaign as an independent and later formed “Partido de la U” around himself. The party is weakly institutionalized, as is the larger coalition, which includes five major parties. There is no reason to think that the party or the coalition will prevail without Uribe. The members are willing to ride the wave of his popularity for now. Yet, a dive in the polls could change his support since there is not a unifying ideology for the group. When it comes time to elect the next president, expect several parties in the coalition to offer candidates.
So, what do the people want in their next president? Well, according to El Tiempo, “The one who gives the most guarantees to the country that they will continue the model of Uribe will win the presidency.” But, without a meaningful party label, how will they know who is most like Uribe? Will they just elect anyone that he endorses? Or, will Uribe change the constitution to run again? Without an institutionalized party system, voters will find it harder to form expectations and hold their leaders accountable. The next president may find himself forming a new party and a new coalition all over again.
2 responses so far ↓
monicapachon // January 28, 2008 at 11:54 pm
The political party system in Colombia looks very volatile — but we can discuss this in class – coalitions in Congress have remained very stable even after the constitutional reform.
The key here is intraparty competition.
monicapachon // February 6, 2008 at 4:39 am
Uribe’s popularity is pretty high – and it also has to do with success in his security policy. This is important for Colombian voters – and cannot usually be distributed via patronage. In other words, even if patronage is one of the reasons the president is popular, it does not seem like the only one.
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